Workshop Report

University of Victoria

May 25-26, 2000

Table of Contents

Executive Summary and Key Recommendations 1

Climate Change Challenges to Oceans and ecosystems 5

Known Impacts of Climate Change on Ocean Ecosystems 6

Shared Needs of the Three Seafood Industries 6

Wild Fisheries 7

Fin Fish Aquaculture 8

Shellfish Aquaculture 9

Workshop speakers 11

Executive Summary and Recommendations

The Seafood Sustainability in a Changing Climate workshop was held at the University of Victoria on May 25-26, 2000. This workshop marked the first time that all the Pacific Coast's seafood industries had been brought together with scientific experts on climate change to discuss the impacts of climate change on their industries.

This workshop was attended by representatives of the wild fisheries, fin fish aquaculture and shellfish aquaculture industries; climate researchers; First Nations; oceanographers; stakeholders in the fisheries industries; all levels of government; regulatory bodies; environmental interest groups; and the media. Together they heard six plenary presentations and participated in panel discussions, break-out groups on the effects of climate change on the wild, fin fish and shellfish industries, and synthesized their results in a final plenary session. Despite the diverse backgrounds of the participants, their discussions were marked by a sense of common purpose, cooperation and a desire to find shared solutions. They met together to share information and perspectives, identify issues of concern, and make recommendations supporting adaptations required to ensure the seafood industries remain sustainable in a changing climate.

Key Recommendations

The Seafood Sustainability in a Changing Climate workshop was sponsored by the following organizations:

The seafood industry of the Pacific Northwest faces many challenges. While the media has brought attention to high-profile fisheries issues such as the recent dramatic collapse in Pacific salmon stocks, not enough scientific and public attention has been paid to the conditions influencing the current state of our marine environment.

On May 25-26, 2000 the Canadian Institute for Climate Studies at the University of Victoria together with the Institute for Pacific Ocean Science and Technology, the Centre for Earth and Ocean Research, the Canadian Global Change Program and Coastal Zone Canada (British Columbia) Association hosted a workshop on Seafood Sustainability in a Changing Climate. This workshop marks the first time that all the Pacific Coast's seafood industries have been brought together with scientific experts on global climate change to discuss the influence of climate change on the wild fisheries, fin fish aquaculture and shellfish aquaculture industries. Although all participants recognized that many factors, such as habitat and harvest practices, influence the state of the seafood industries, they agreed to focus on the impacts of climate change on seafood sustainability during this workshop. During the workshop, it was clear that participants wanted to work together to get 'outside the box' of traditional thinking on seafood industry issues and find innovative, multi-disciplinary and collaborative solutions that will allow them to adapt to the influences of climate change. Their discussions, concerns and recommendations are presented in this report.

Climate Change Overview

Scientists agree that the level of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere remained relatively steady for the last 10,000 years at an average of about 260 parts per million (ppm) until recently. Since the beginning of the industrial age about 200 years ago, the level of CO₂ in the atmosphere has risen to about 368 ppm today -- a dramatic increase. In concert with this increase in atmospheric CO₂ and other greenhouse gases, the global mean temperature has risen 0.6° C in the last 100 years, with seven of the hottest years occurring in the 1990's.

While the causes of climate change are not the subject of this summary paper, scientists whose research work forms part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change agree that human activities accelerate the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and are the cause of the rapid increase in global atmospheric temperatures. Scientists conclude that there is a discernible human influence on the global climate. They predict that the mean global atmospheric temperature will rise by about 2° C by 2100 if current trends continue. Even if the modest emissions reduction targets set by the Kyoto Protocol are met, they are too slight to effect a meaningful reduction in projected temperature or sea levels. Because of the cumulative effects of greenhouse gases and the expanding energy demands of a rapidly increasing world population, climate scientists estimate it would be necessary to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to below one half of 1990 levels just to stabilize the greenhouse gas levels.

Some of the observable impacts of climate change affecting our marine environment include:

• Increasing air temperatures most pronounced over land
• Increasing ocean temperatures, particularly in coastal areas
• Rising sea levels -- polar icepacks and mountain glaciers are retreating; oceans are thermally expanding
• Decreasing spring snow cover -- the timing and speed of the spring thaw is accelerating lengthening the frost free period
• Changing precipitation patterns -- rising or falling in different areas of the world
• Increasing intensity and frequency of storms over the North Pacific Ocean
• Warming night-time air temperatures -- rising twice as quickly as daytime temperatures -- reducing the diurnal variation and frequency of frost

The new conditions caused by climate change combine in a series of interactions to influence the world's oceans, ecosystems and species. For example, scientists observe that warmer ocean temperatures coincide with a diminished availability of nutrients such as nitrates -- a problem that works its way through the food chain, leading to declining survival rates and smaller sizes of fish, marine animals and shellfish. As the effects of climate change become stronger and broader in marine ecosystems, the frequency of mass mortalities and harmful algal blooms is rising. Climate change also has an impact on the distribution of predators, changes the abundance and composition of food, and alters the timing of food availability. In turn, this changes spawning, feeding, migration and predation patterns.

In the northeastern Pacific, the ocean waters are warmer and salinity has decreased. The layer of mixed ocean is shallower and, as a result, there is a decreased upwelling of nutrients. Scientists (and the fisheries) have observed that salmon runs have decreased dramatically off British Columbia but have actually increased in the northern, cooler waters off Alaska. The run of sockeye in Rivers Inlet has declined from 2 million annually to 3,600 in 1999. Similarly, the 1999 run of Fraser River sockeye, expected to be 8

million, returned only 3 million and water temperatures in the river are considered to be at near lethal levels. Scientists believe that the marine survival of salmon stocks is now only 10% of historical values. Other marine life is also noticeably affected. The biomass of jellyfish in the Bering Sea has increased; there are major declines in zooplankton biomass in the California Current; cold water zooplankton species are being replaced by warm-water species on BC's continental shelf and zooplankton production is beginning one to two months earlier than in the past.

Scientists also notice profound shifts in fish migration patterns in the Pacific Ocean. For example, sardine spawning areas have moved northward from the coast of southern California in the 1980's to the coast of southern Vancouver Island and Washington State in the 1990s. Similarly, Pacific hake have moved their spawning grounds from a large area offshore of southern California to a thin, long coastal band extending from northern California to northern Vancouver Island. As well, southern species such as mackerel, are invading British Columbia's coastal waters. On the other hand, fin fish and shellfish aquaculture have until now, been unaffected by climate change.

Known Impacts of Climate Change on Ocean Ecosystems

Ocean and climate change scientists believe that the known impacts of climate change on ocean ecosystems are gradual. These shifts are now being detected as modest changes in the abundance of commercial species and other top predators. The relative order of species abundance is remaining generally constant. Ocean scientists believe that ecosystems tend to fluctuate around an average state and tend to return to a new stable state following a period of change. Their stability depends on the ability of the ecosystem to resist change and its resilience, or ability to recover following change. Scientists also know a lot about the environmental needs of specific species. For example, they know the water temperatures, food supplies and seasonal habits fish prefer.

Scientists are just beginning to identify what they do not know -- and they have many more questions than answers. Although they are able to demonstrate that changes to ocean ecosystems correlate generally with climate change, not enough is known about the complex interactions and variables in this linked system. They know little about how the repercussions of climate change work their way through the ecosystem. They also do not know what determines the stability and resilience of an ecosystem. As well, it is often difficult to distinguish between long-term trends like climate change, regime shifts that occur over decades, and short term cycles such as El Nino. There is little available information about how marine life adapts to changes over short-term or long-term time scales or about how entire ecosystems might adapt to them.

Because of the dependence of the Pacific fisheries industry on the availability of wild salmon, most fisheries research has focused on climate change's impacts on the five salmon species. Even so, little is yet known about the consequences of climate change for those species whose life history is tied to a fixed place such as fin fish or shellfish aquaculture. Very little is understood about the conditions affecting species' growth rates and mortality. That salmon stocks, for example, are diminishing in size and number is clear, but not enough is known about the causes and life-cycle timing of this die-off.

Shared Needs of the Three Seafood Industries

British Columbia's coastal waters are home to over 400 species of fish, of which 65 are commercially taken, including five species of Pacific salmon and 17 non-salmonid species. As well, these marine waters support many varieties of commercially and recreationally harvested shellfish. Commercial fisheries harvest shellfish ranging from four species of clams, three species of shrimp and three species of crab to red and green sea urchins and gooseneck barnacles. Aquaculture companies harvest blue mussels, manila clams, abalone, geoduck, Japanese scallops and Pacific oysters. These species are an integral part of many marine ecosystems in the Pacific northwest and their historic abundance has contributed significantly to British Columbia's economy. Because of their environmental and economic importance, it is vital that government, scientists and the seafood industry develop a detailed understanding of the consequences of climate change to oceanic and fresh water ecosystems and to the individual species living within them. Only with this knowledge will it be possible to ensure our marine species and our seafood industries remain sustainable.

British Columbia has three major seafood industries: wild fish/shellfish harvesting, fin fish and shellfish aquaculture. Historically, harvesting the wild catch of salmon has dominated the seafood industry through commercial and sport fishing. This focus remains even though wild salmon stocks decline; farming fin fish is seen by many as a commercial alternative or supplement to the wild harvest. Shellfish farming is undergoing a similar shift to replace pressured traditional fisheries with more intensive and efficient culture systems.

Although they differ in everything from ecosystem requirements to harvesting methods, all three industries agree that science should play a large role in helping Canadians make choices about a sustainable seafood future. These industries share a need to understand as much as possible about the impacts of climate change. Most pressing, they each require projections and analyses of various climate change scenarios and their repercussions at a regional level. Currently developed global scenarios are somewhat helpful but fail to provide the detail necessary to begin understanding the consequences of climate change on localized ecosystems.

As well, each industry requires far more information than is now available about how each species will react to the complex web of interactions that may result from climate change. For example, how will each individual species respond to the effects of warmer or cooler water temperatures, wind, different storm frequencies, wave action, changed migration patterns of other species, stress, changing abundance and location of food supplies, etc? The industries require a better understanding about how the effects of climate change will work their way through the regional ecosystem and how these ecosystem structures might change. An improved ability to predict changes and determine whether they are long-term or cyclical would assist these industries to adapt by changing harvesting expectations and methods, harvesting alternative species, adopting new or transferred technologies, relocating operations, and so on.

The three industries are looking for long-term government policies to assist them in preparing for the consequences of climate change. As part of this, they are looking for a full cost accounting of the consequences of climate change on each industry, the marine ecosystems and specific species. They believe that a strategy must be developed to bring all seafood sectors together with government, universities and research institutes to develop a better consultation process and access to information. They share a pressing need for effective public education and communication about the effects of climate change on their industries and coastal communities. They want to address the public's health and environmental concerns with scientifically-based information that is factual and clear.

The wild fisheries in British Columbia have been hit hard by the significant loss of salmon stocks in the past several years. This industry needs to avoid the disasters of the past and adapt to the uncertainty of the future. In particular, it requires better projections of regional climate change and of the effects of long-term variability on both the ecosystems and specific species. It also requires marine ecosystem scenarios outlining the consequences of climate change and extreme events as well as predictions of fish stocks arising from seasonal changes such as El Ninos. To develop these scenarios, the industry strongly advocates for new technology that would allow better monitoring and prediction to gather climate change, ecosystem and species data pertinent to the fishery. This data collection should go beyond recording temperature and precipitation to include factors such as nutrient levels, salinity and oxygen levels.

The wild fisheries industry needs to develop an ability to plan for and adapt to the likely results of climate change. Using data collection and long-term scenarios as a starting point, it is looking for leadership in developing adaptation strategies that will increase the industry's flexibility and diversification. It seeks help to cope with changing harvest levels, species' altering migration and predation patterns, and the possibility of harvesting new species that may begin to frequent BC's coastal waters. For example, intra-fishery licenses could be considered to allow the fishing industry to harvest more than one type of fish to sustain it through periods of cyclical change. Recognizing that the effects of climate change are broader than merely new patterns of various species, ecosystems and annual catches, the industry wants to see thorough analyses of the socio-economic impacts of climate change on coastal or fisheries dependent communities. The industry also wants to see research into the human-induced triggers of environmental catastrophes to provide an ability to avoid or reduce ecosystem disasters.

Fin Fish Aquaculture

The fin fish industry shares many interests with the wild fishery with respect to climate change. Like the wild fisheries, the fin fish industry requires better regional information about the long-term trends and impacts of climate change, as well as ecosystem and species-specific data. It seeks information on water temperature; salinity; oxygen levels; diseases; pests; stress; the effects of wind and weather; the scale, frequency and impacts of algae blooms, plankton blooms and pathogens; and changes to the fresh water supply.

In addition to the needs it shares with the wild fisheries, the fin fish industry requires enhanced daily data gathering at industry sites, baseline sites and potential sites for new fish farm operations. This information will allow the industry to adapt to changing conditions by moving operations to the most favourable sites, as required. Because feed stock and food supplies are often shipped from global sources, the industry needs information about the reliability of global resources influenced by climate change.

As wild fisheries are analogous to hunting, the fin fisheries are comparable to cattle farming. By domesticating wild species and raising and harvesting them under controlled conditions in specific locations, the fin fish industry may have structural advantages over traditional fisheries. The industry believes that, with sufficient scientific research and a commitment from government to support the fin fish

industry, adaptation to climate change is possible. To make these adaptations, the industry would like to take a pro-active approach against the impacts of climate change. In particular, it wants to use scientific research to identify potential new industry locations, suitable under various climate change scenarios, to allow the industry to move quickly should change become necessary. Other priorities include the development of robust stocks of existing or new species more tolerant of changing environmental and ecosystem conditions. The industry would like to explore experimentation with poly-cultures to raise and harvest non-competitive species together, and to harvest fouling agents such as the blue mussels that grow on salmon net cages. The industry believes it would benefit from new marketing opportunities resulting from this new wealth of scientific knowledge, allowing it to prosper in the midst of change.

The fin fish industry seeks to develop new technologies and transfer existing technologies to assist it in its adaptations. It also seeks to develop and market new value-added products. Other adaptation opportunities include the introduction of closed farming systems both in water and on land, open ocean aquaculture, sea ranching or artificial reefs. It also believes there may be opportunities such as exploring the possibility of using excess tanker ship capacity to raise fish in a completely isolated and controlled environment. Such adaptations would help increase the industry's capacity, market size and make it more resilient to change.

Shellfish Aquaculture

The shellfish industry does not know what the effects of climate change may be. Possibly, those changes may be more positive than negative because growing cycles could be extended and more areas may be useable for harvesting. New species may be able to live in more northern waters, but while some could be beneficial, others could interfere with existing species. As yet, little is known. The effects of other factors such as algal blooms and extreme weather events, are also unknown. The shellfish aquaculture industry believes that it may be able to adapt, particularly if those changes are gradual. The industry contends that if the transition caused by climate change is manageable, it may provide new business opportunities that could increase the size of the industry significantly and benefit BC's coastal communities. With an increase in land base, new species and new technologies adapted to climate change, coupled with the development of new markets, the shellfish industry believes it has the potential to grow eight-fold over 10 years. Because culturists partly control the shellfish organism's lifecycle, the shellfish aquaculture industry believes it may be in a good position to adapt to climate change and create opportunities from it. It believes climate change threats may exist but more knowledge is needed to identify them.

The shellfish aquaculture industry seeks research into biodiversity and the ecology of each organism they could potentially culture including their responses to variables such as temperature, salinity, waves, storms and precipitation. They are particularly interested in the impact of algal biodiversity on the shellfish industry. As the industry may be forced to switch away from intertidal culture due to climate change, the industry requires scientific research to produce high quality shellfish under the conditions predicted by climate change scenarios.

Shellfish aquaculture's concerns extend beyond the potential impacts of climate change. As a nascent industry, it believes its adaptation to climate change can coincide with policy, product and marketing developments that support the industry's ambitions for growth and diversification. Primary among these interests is the need for the government to acknowledge and support shellfish aquaculture as a legitimate, financially viable industry that can operate within environmentally sound parameters. It wants support in developing new technology and transferring existing technology to the industry, helping it adapt to climate change and opening up new farming and marketing opportunities. It seeks support in developing new culturing and marketing techniques so that it can produce better quality products and receive better prices.

The shellfish aquaculture industry seeks an integration of long-term government policies concerning climate change and is looking for realistic coastal zone management criteria to better balance recreational, environmental and commercial uses of British Columbia's coastal areas. The industry is adamant that regulations governing shellfish aquaculture must be progressive, meaning that regulations concerning species management, harvesting and processing must be specific to the industry and not merely transferred from wild harvest regulations.

Key Recommendations

All workshop participants began with the premise that climate change is a reality affecting the seafood industries. They agreed on the necessity of extensive global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize the negative impacts of climate change. Ensuring that the seafood industries of the Pacific remain sustainable in a changing climate requires a commitment to scientific research, forward-looking and long-term government policies, and an improved capacity to adapt to change. Workshop participants agreed that achieving these goals will require a broad-based, multi-disciplinary approach with participation from all levels of government. To encourage this comprehensive approach, the following recommendations, which apply equally to government and the seafood industries, arose out of workshop discussions:

1. Increase Canada's efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Undertake full cost accounting of all components of the seafood industries to ascertain their net contributions to climate change and sustainability including introduction of new technologies.
3. Augment Canada's marine and climate change data collection and predictive capacity so that information is available on a wider range of marine ecosystem parameters.
4. Develop regional scenarios detailing the probable local effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and species, and improve capabilities for interpreting and analyzing the significance of regional and global climate change scenarios.
5. Create a pooled data and information warehouse operated jointly by scientific researchers and government agencies and allowing third party access.
6. Develop an infrastructure that improves communication and consultation processes between the seafood industry, government, marine and climate change researchers, coastal communities and the general public.
7. Identify and invest in new technologies and improve access to transferred technologies that can assist industries in adapting to the effects of climate change.
8. Identify and pre-approve locations suitable for fin fish and shellfish aquaculture under various climate change scenarios to speed these industries' ability to adapt to climate change.
9. Improve the quality, accessibility and relevance of climate change information available to the public, particularly as it relates to the impact of climate change on the seafood industries.
10. Provide technical education and disseminate knowledge to marine communities.
11. Build on past work, such as this workshop, to develop an institutional memory and provide momentum for new research that will lead to successful adaptation to climate change and a sustainable seafood industry.

Workshop Speakers

The following participants addressed the Workshop on Seafood Sustainability in a Changing Climate:

Hon. John Fraser, Chair, Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council

Dr. Andrew Weaver, Professor, School of Earth and Ocean

Sciences, University of Victoria

Dr. John Davis, Assistant Deputy Minister, Science, federal Department of Fisheries and Oceans

Brian Kingzett, Representative, British Columbia Shellfish Growers Association

Dr. Brad Hicks, Vice President, Taplow Feeds

Dr. John Dower, Assistant Professor, Dept of Oceanography, University of British Columbia

Participants

The workshop was attended by representatives of the following groups:

Department of Fisheries and Oceans

BC Ministry of Fisheries

First Nations resource and habitat managers

Fisheries Companies

Integrated Fishing Companies

Hatcheries

Fish Processing Industry

Recreational Fisheries

Climate Research

Oceanography

 Academia

Fraser Basin Council

Environmental and Non-governmental groups

Regulatory managers for habitat protection

BC Ministry of Industry and Technology

Fisheries Renewal BC

Coastal Communities

Fisheries

Media