Prepared by

2WE ASSOCIATES CONSULTING LTD.

VICTORIA, BC V8N 3X1

May, 2000

1. Introduction

Climate change will bring social changes, as new business opportunities open up and other industries disappear. Demographic changes, the development of new infrastructures, market development, the creation of new jobs and the disappearance of old ones are all possible consequences.

Global warming may also lead to sea level rise, which will gradually impact some types of aquaculture, although the fluctuations of water level in freshwater lakes due to changes in precipitation may prove to be more troublesome. Increasing extremes of weather patterns and storms will be another hazard to coastal industries. Storm surges, waves, and coastal erosion are likely to have a larger effect than the rise in mean high water levels.

The purpose of this document is not to be definitive in the forecasts and/or solutions of the potential impact of climate change. Such confidence in the future will require more study and research than has yet been undertaken. The document does try to open up the discussion of possible scenarios which the industry and operators themselves can enrich from their own experience and knowledge.

2. The Aquaculture Industry in Canada

Aquaculture represents a small but rapidly growing sector of the Canadian economy. Commercial aquaculture production reached over $0.5 Billion in Canada in 1998, an overall increase of 19% over 1997.

Aquaculture helps maintain local economies, and creates jobs far from urban centres, where other opportunities are difficult to find . The industry has spawned a supply and service community that is expanding to meet increased production demands, and it has promoted a private sector technical and research capability. In order to be competitive, the industry is investing in advances in facilities, fish nutrition, fish health, species diversification, and even genetics, all requiring high technology support. In all, the industry supported 8000 jobs in 1998, mostly in low employment areas. Over 50% of the jobs are held by workers under the age of 30, partly due to the rapid growth of the industry and partly to the training programs offered in the Canadian post-secondary educational system.

Aquaculture represented approximately 25% of the world’s food fish supply in 1995 (Fig. 1), a figure that has been growing steadily. The Canadian industry is already competing successfully in the international market with both finfish and shellfish products. The Canadian industry differs, however, from the global picture, in the predominance of its marine production (Table 1).

Within Canada, the effort is spread nationally, predominantly on the coasts, with British Colombia accounting for about half the production value, due to its position as the world’s 4^th largest producer of farmed salmon. New Brunswick also has a large stake in the industry, with its farmed Atlantic salmon being more important to the provincial economy than any other single agricultural product.

The future is very positive for the industry. Aquaculture has the potential to take over an increasing share of fish and shellfish food products. Although the industry today is dominated by salmon farming, Canada has the potential to produce a wide range of other fish, shellfish and aquatic plants.

(source: FAO)

The industry in British Columbia is dominated by the production of farmed salmon, mainly Atlantic salmon and chinook. BC shellfish culture is mainly for Pacific oysters, Manilla clams, and scallops. Other species currently being cultured in limited or experimental quantities include: Arctic char, carp, crayfish, sablefish, white sturgeon, mussels, geoduck clams, sea cucumbers and the green sea urchin. The industry is located in rural coastal areas, where farms offer economic opportunities to local communities.

The 1995 performance of the Alberta aquaculture industry is relatively small and is freshwater-based. Rainbow trout, brook trout, tilapia, goldfish, koi and Arctic char are presently being farmed, with rainbow trout making up the majority of Alberta production and sales.

The aquaculture industry in Ontario continues to be dominated by the production of rainbow trout. Other species are expected to increase in importance as production increases in the next few years. Although there are now over forty aquatic species eligible for culture in Ontario, most of the future growth will likely be in trout, and Arctic char, yellow perch, and tilapia.

The Quebec aquaculture industry is small and dominated by blue mussel culture. Other species cultured in commercial quantities are rainbow trout, char, and oysters.

The Maritime provinces reflect the diversity and potential of the industry. Aquaculture in Prince Edward Island is dominated by mussels (about 75% of value) and oyster culture, with some finfish operations. The industry is rapidly growing in New Brunswick, where Atlantic salmon is by far the dominant species raised (about 95% of production). Species cultured in Nova Scotia include Atlantic salmon, steelhead, rainbow trout, blue mussels, sea scallops, American oysters, and European oysters.

The industry in Newfoundland, is focused on steelhead, Atlantic salmon and blue mussels. The prospects for giant scallop, Arctic char, Atlantic cod, Atlantic halibut, and sea urchins are also being explored.

At present the industry is concentrated in sheltered coastal waters on the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. The direction of future growth depends on fish and shellfish species, market demand, competitiveness, availability of sites, and environmental conditions. The regulatory environment and public opinion play a role in each of these factors. Engineering advances will allow farms to move farther offshore or to on-land sites for high value species, but investment will be expensive and require risks to be minimized. The competitiveness of the Canadian industry will depend on the development of long-term strategies, that must take account of environmental changes.

Aquaculture is regulated primarily by the provincial level of government, with scientific support and advice from Fisheries and Oceans Canada. DFO also regulates interprovincial transport of fish and eggs, and the Department has been a long-time industry participant on both coasts as an operator of salmon hatcheries and culture facilities.

The industry is supported nationally by the Office of the Commissioner for Aquaculture Development, which is responsible for implementing Canada’s Federal Aquaculture Development Strategy. OCAD works with the provinces to coordinate regulatory reform and to champion the development of the industry in Canada.

The industry is organised both regionally and sectorally. There are two national industry associations, the Canadian Aquaculture Industry Alliance, and the Canadian Aquaculture Association, as well as provincial associations in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Newfoundland.

3. Climate Change and its Impact

The temperature of the water in which an aquaculture facility will operate is an important aspect of site suitability. In some cases the expected temperature ranges at a site impact directly the decision to proceed with a facility. For example, the temperature ranges in which a given species of fish can survive is, in general, more restrictive than those of farm animals on land, and an anticipated change of a few degrees may mean the difference between a successful aquaculture venture and an unsuccessful one.

Each species cultured has growth optima for temperature. The health of the fish stock will be more resilient in the range of temperatures preferred by the species, as the stress levels and vulnerability of the individuals to disease will be reduced.

It is not only the fish species themselves that are susceptible to temperature ranges. The range of fish pests and parasites will also be restricted by temperatures and warmer waters will inevitably mean an increase in the incidence of outbreaks of unwelcome infections.

Temperature variations, again of a range of only a few degrees, can also have indirect implications for an aquaculture facility. A temperature rise can lead to plant production in an area that will cause oxygen depletion. Perhaps of even more serious concern would be an increased incidence of harmful algal blooms that release toxins into the water and generate fish kills. Caged fish are more susceptible to these types of occurrences than their free brethren that have a better chance of avoiding contaminated waters.

Temperature rises also have positive aspects. Growth of the stock within the optimum range is also linked to water temperatures, although probably less so than in the wild fishery. In the natural environment food availability is linked to productivity, which may also be partly dependent on temperature. For the case of aquaculture, the food supply is controlled and the effect of temperature on metabolic rate and the scope for growth is the major factor.

Another positive aspect, at least for Canada, is that of increasing availability of fresh sites on the northern coastlines, where suitability for aquaculture is presently restricted by cold temperatures.

For aquaculture in freshwater lakes, the impact of temperature will likely be substantially more serious than in marine locations. The thermal optima for cultured species are pretty well known. It could be assumed that an enclosed water body will be subjected to higher temperature ranges, a greater degree of eutrophication and so possibly be more quickly influenced by the atmospheric climate changes. The possible disappearance or lessening of the annual winter ice cover will affect the net exchange of gases and nutrients at the water surface. The availability of natural nutrients and production may also be altered by changes to lake circulation patterns, but the result of such changes will vary from lake to lake.

The predicted rise in mean sea level due to climate change is one of the more certain outputs of climate change models, but it would take place over a relatively long time scale. It can be expected that this change will be accommodated within the normal operational cycles of an aquaculture facility, for example in the replacement of longer moorings etc. in the normal maintenance cycle.

In a few cases changes to the mean sea level may be critical in terms of tidal currents, but such cases would be rare and in any event the changes would be likely more serious if it were a fall in sea level rather than a rise.

For inland waters, climate change will bring alterations to the evaporation and precipitation cycles that may well be much more serious and take place much more rapidly than for the case of salt water aquaculture. Although one may be able to predict temperature rise due to climate change, the evaporation and precipitation will be much more variable and difficult to forecast. The former will depend on cloud cover and windiness in addition to temperature, whilst the precipitation climate is not only expected to change, but may increase or decrease depending on the region concerned. The input to a lake system will depend also on intensity, with higher runoff associated with heavier rainfall. The output from climate change models is perhaps adequate to forecast the direction of effect, but computing technology and modelling limitations do not now permit the models to be run at a watershed scale.

Lake levels can and will vary at a faster rate than sea level. A rise or fall of tens of feet may occur within a decade, possibly leading to situations where relocation is impossible. Freshwater aquaculture facilities which maintain their water levels artificially, will of course be impervious to the natural variation and the major concern will be one of water supply.

Although difficult to quantify, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events seems to have increased over the past decade. Indeed, these increases are projected by global climate models. The large inflation in claims on the insurance industry is only partially explained by population and cost increases. The rise in the numbers of hurricanes, for example, is real, as are the catastrophic floods and droughts of the 1990s. Instability in the climate system must be considered as one possible cause of these events and, therefore, the likelihood of even more unsettled and extreme weather in the future is a legitimate concern.

For the aquaculture industry, increased storm conditions would result in more damage and additional losses, both costly to operations. Many coastal processes, such as sediment transport, take place mostly during high energy events (storms). An increase in storm activity may therefore initiate bottom changes, erosion or other events that have an impact on a facility outside the direct exposure to increased wind and wave activity.

Design characteristics for cages, moorings, jetties etc. will need to be extended to include the possibility of higher and more frequent weather activity. Such design changes may be dictated by insurance requirements, by national codes or by the operators themselves; regardless, the result of stronger and more robust facilities will likely be costly. The potential for damage to shore-based facilities is serious. In the storm of January 23, 2000, in Atlantic Canada, where the storm surge was 2 m. above highest tide, blocks of ice were driven through buildings, crushing equipment inside. There were no fish pens in the water.

Facilities may also be threatened by high water events due to storm surges associated with severe storms, and high waters are accompanied by greater vulnerability to wave action and currents.

4. Environmental Factors, Impacts and Mitigation

Although not directly related to climate change, the public perception of the environment will be heightened by the perceived changes in climate. The realization that anthropogenic effects on the environment are real will be reinforced by the arrival of changes due to the greenhouse warming of the planet. It would be expected that this increased awareness of the interaction between society and the planet will lead to more stringent regulation and a more precautionary approach to management of the environment. At the same time, quota reductions in the capture fisheries are having major impacts on the economic viability of coastal communities outside major centres of employment. Aquaculture provides one on the few alternative sources of employment generally available. The interaction of these two factors in setting public policy has yet to play out.

The impact of changes on the industry will be lessened by some foresight in the planning and selection of sites. Genetic manipulation of stocks may be able to offset the restrictions due to temperature rise. Similarly, advanced warning and precautions taken against new pests and diseases due to warmer waters will enable the industry to prepare for and guard against invasions.

Given the trend generally for increasing environmentally-based regulation and control, aquaculture, depending as it does on its interaction with the environment, is likely to be more heavily controlled in its licencing and operation than hitherto. The application for site approval will likely require additional environmental data, the criteria for selection may include more parameters, and operational monitoring of the environment may become more onerous. These changes, once absorbed by the industry, will in general lead to better management and a more robust operation.

Aquaculture is not the only marine activity that seems destined for growth. Marine transportation, for example, is projected to increase substantially over the next two decades. In some areas, increased congestion and rising costs in the land transportation system will make coastal marine trade more attractive than in the past. Recreation activities can only increase with the increasing population and the promised warmer waters off the beaches. As one of the coastal activities, aquaculture will be expected to both manage its own activities to lessen its impact on other industries, but also to lobby for its own requirements in the management of others.

The population growth and migration to coastal areas will bring an additional burden to coastal waters. Most of the wastes from human activities ends up in the coastal zone, generated locally, brought down by rivers, and deposited from the atmosphere. Not all of the wastes are toxic, but the nutrients and organic matter brought down from lands also have the capacity to cause eutrophication and oxygen depletion. Environmental susceptibility to these two events is highest in the sheltered coastal inlets that are home to much of Canada’s aquaculture.

While not directly related to climate change, industrial effects on water and sediment quality can in some cases be of concern in the marketing for fish or shellfish. Some of the toxic substances in industrial wastes are very persistent and could cause a site restrictions for many years. Coastal waters are susceptible to the influence of farming, forestry and mining practices and future coastal management will hopefully extend far enough into the hinterland to merge the interests of both land and fish farmer.

Other marine activities also threaten environmental conditions. Although catastrophic events such as oil spills cannot be entirely eliminated, better management of safety and stricter control of operations has reduced the occurrence of such risks. Nevertheless, the recognition and action taken against all sources of pollution, including from the aquaculture industry itself, should remain a high priority.

5. Technological Advances

The prediction of technological change is always speculative, although the industry operators will be able to identify major trends.

Biotechnology and genetic manipulation may be able to produce species better adapted to temperature rises, and even to cope with new pests and diseases that may arrive with warmer waters.

As aquaculture grows, and as waters warm, the ability of the industry to grow its own food stocks, analogous to the farmer growing corn and hay to feed his cattle, may reduce present rearing costs.

If warmer waters lead to increased problems with quality control, due to blooms, pollution and pests, some products may be able to be raised in onshore facilities under controlled conditions. The markets for such high quality products will be similar to the present trend towards organic and hydroponic terrestrial foods.

Onshore facilities will be safer from weather systems, but engineering advances will reduce the downtime and damage to aquatic systems from storms. Systems capable of submergence offer other advantages, such as easier harvesting when afloat and less interference with other activities when submerged. Larger systems could be moored offshore, away from the coast and its associated water quality problems.

6. Conclusions

From this cursory examination of the onset of climate change and its impact on the aquaculture industry, one could deduce that the biggest need for mitigation is information and knowledge to allow for advanced planning.

It would be expected that future facilities will be larger, more robust, more independent of the environment and operationally more efficient.

The industry should in general be able to adapt to changing conditions by technological and biological advances and possibly by relocation. Increased opportunities may present themselves to the industry with a warmer climate.